Biosecurity Surveillance: Quantitative Approaches is a second new book that I’ve contributed to. It starts with the basic concepts of biosecurity, motivations for surveillance and foundational probability theory, then works up to some very sophisticated approaches for risk mapping and survey design.
In Chapter 8 Georgia Garrard, Joslin Moore and I discuss methods for estimating detection rates and probabilities. Understanding what you’re missing is an important component of biosecurity surveillance and inference, and we’ve done some field experiments and statistical analyses to find out just that. We lay out our experimental designs and findings for hawkweed detection in the Aussie alps and serrated tussock detection in native grasslands. There are also general tips and tricks for designing such experiments, sample BUGS code, and a quick look at the literature on estimating detection and abundance.
Hauser, C.E., Garrard, G.E. & Moore, J.L. (2015) Estimating detection rates and probabilities, in Biosecurity Surveillance: Quantitative Approaches. Jarrad, F., Low-Choy, S. & Mengersen, K., eds. CABI, Wallingford Oxfordshire UK. pp 151-166.